I think we're seeing the same pattern we saw before in Japan and then Korea, rapid industrialization in support of an export-driven economy. In both previous cases, the growth was driven by vast government support and enormous loans and large economic bubbles (which have largely burst in both countries, but they've left quite a mess as well). It also had interesting side effects, due to the government favoring certain industries, and certain players in those industries, of establishing long running tendencies for croniysm in both economies and in the government that both are also now dealing with. Japan's recent power shakeup in the government is evidence of this, with the head of the DPJ I believe apologizing for future missteps as nobody but the LDP has rule the country in a few generations and they need time to "figure things out".
The difference, and why so few people fail to analyze China along similar lines, is that China is so big, and China is historically communist. We've all acted very confused about what's going on over there, when really it's essentially following the same patterns, just on a larger scale. Eventually, the economy of China will grow to be so large that a pure export-driven economy will no longer work, the cost of employing factory workers won't necessarily realize the same cost savings that they do now, and then they'll have to being transitioning their economy over to other areas of expertise.
Japan and Korea both largely settled on hi-tech partnerships in electronics and manufacturing and automobile manufacturing, which while still export-driven in the technical sense, is loads different than making under priced radios and other flashy and cheap trinkets. China is still largely in the cheap trinket export market, but the plethora of automobile manufacturers, and some notable acquisitions in that areas, as well as an internal push towards hi-tech manufacturing (the Longsoon processor for example) makes me think they'll be in the same state in 20 or 30 years.
The difference, and why so few people fail to analyze China along similar lines, is that China is so big, and China is historically communist. We've all acted very confused about what's going on over there, when really it's essentially following the same patterns, just on a larger scale. Eventually, the economy of China will grow to be so large that a pure export-driven economy will no longer work, the cost of employing factory workers won't necessarily realize the same cost savings that they do now, and then they'll have to being transitioning their economy over to other areas of expertise.
Japan and Korea both largely settled on hi-tech partnerships in electronics and manufacturing and automobile manufacturing, which while still export-driven in the technical sense, is loads different than making under priced radios and other flashy and cheap trinkets. China is still largely in the cheap trinket export market, but the plethora of automobile manufacturers, and some notable acquisitions in that areas, as well as an internal push towards hi-tech manufacturing (the Longsoon processor for example) makes me think they'll be in the same state in 20 or 30 years.