I think that we will make steady progress towards cars that are safer than the average driver. I think that to drive like a human using only binocular visual cues is less obvious, but a computer can process so much more information and have such a varied array of sensors that it can "cheat" its way into being better without as much intelligence.
I also claim that full autonomy is not required, just sufficient autonomy that it can safely hand-off to the driver when confused (the ability to recognize an untenable situation soon enough to pull over to the side of the road is sufficient for that, beeping 2 seconds before crashing is not).
I'm also unconvinced that it will be economic for companies to make self-driving cars any time in the near future though, because even if they are (for example) twice as safe as an average driver, that's a huge number of lawsuits and juries award much higher damages when the defendant is a corporation rather than a (possibly dead or permanently injured) person.
I also claim that full autonomy is not required, just sufficient autonomy that it can safely hand-off to the driver when confused (the ability to recognize an untenable situation soon enough to pull over to the side of the road is sufficient for that, beeping 2 seconds before crashing is not).
I'm also unconvinced that it will be economic for companies to make self-driving cars any time in the near future though, because even if they are (for example) twice as safe as an average driver, that's a huge number of lawsuits and juries award much higher damages when the defendant is a corporation rather than a (possibly dead or permanently injured) person.