> What I think this underestimates is the exponential nature of big wins.
Yeah, I'm not so convinced of his music business analogy. Normally, people in the music business are quite aware of the fact that "a hit leads to another hit".
The issue is that getting a "hit" means that people are willing to give you more chances to get the next "hit".
Maybe your next song isn't as good, but, hey, we're willing to throw more marketing behind it this time. Or, you've been playing bars, but the market research shows your profitable group are tweeny girls, so you retarget your tour sites. etc.
In this instance, the fact that you once had a hit means people are more willing to apply resource to help you get the next hit (ie. music execs are sheep--aka VC's are sheep).
Yeah, I'm not so convinced of his music business analogy. Normally, people in the music business are quite aware of the fact that "a hit leads to another hit".
The issue is that getting a "hit" means that people are willing to give you more chances to get the next "hit".
Maybe your next song isn't as good, but, hey, we're willing to throw more marketing behind it this time. Or, you've been playing bars, but the market research shows your profitable group are tweeny girls, so you retarget your tour sites. etc.
In this instance, the fact that you once had a hit means people are more willing to apply resource to help you get the next hit (ie. music execs are sheep--aka VC's are sheep).