VW invested before they went public and they likely got in a much lower cost and later added on top but received not just stock but also partnership agreements. And the investment for a company like VW isn't that big. A company the size of VW can take such risks.
VW has invested far more and far more aggressively in Northvolt for example.
> Your analysis merely shows that you don't see the value of a battery with roughly 2x the energy density, 2x the charging times
No I question that when they can produce these batteries in relevant volume that their advantage will be nearly as big.
And far more important is actually price. Manufactures are INCREDIBLY price sensitive. There might be some premium for extra performance but they are far smaller then most people imagine.
> I don't think it's going to be that easy for other companies to simply catch up without a lot of R&D.
What I am telling you that there is MASSIVE amounts of R&D going into silicon. Like 10x more then Lithium anodes.
Both on individual company level and huge amounts of startups as well.
> Existing battery factories won't magically turn into factories for entirely different batteries.
Actually, yes they will depending on your definition of 'new'. There are 30+ year old battery factories still operating with newer chemistry.
Most silicon startups and processes are design according to specification to be valid feed stock for typical Li-Ion production.
It is totally viable for existing factories to switch to very, very different anodes and cathodes.
Actually, yes they will depending on your definition of 'new'. There are 30+ year old battery factories still operating with newer chemistry.
This is not universally true. Tesla for example is doing its own thing for example with dry electrodes, and are far less compatible.
> Most electrical cars produced by the end of this decade will be built in factories that don't exist yet.
Most EV will produced in factories that are currently in advanced planning, literally 99% of those will not be lithium metal anode factories.
> That's the opportunity for Quantumscape.
I'm not denying that they have an opportunity. But company with huge tech, market risk and price risk is a very risky investment. They have not made profit and wont make it for many more years.
Their valuation now is of course far more reasonable then when I originally made this argument, but its still rather high for me. But I would have to spend more time on analyzing to say what I think they are worth.
I like to ask, how many years of highly successful execution is required to for the company be a solid self standing company. For QS this is likely about 8-10 years.
> If they have something competitive by 2024
They wont. By then they are in sample production of a tiny factory. You massively underestimate how much time and effort it will require to build a real modern mass production facility that can directly compete to go into modern car production line.
If they are lucky by 2025 one of their partners will make some sample luxury cars with their batteries in them. Maybe in 2026-2027 some new luxury car will actually go into series production with these.
VW has invested far more and far more aggressively in Northvolt for example.
> Your analysis merely shows that you don't see the value of a battery with roughly 2x the energy density, 2x the charging times
No I question that when they can produce these batteries in relevant volume that their advantage will be nearly as big.
And far more important is actually price. Manufactures are INCREDIBLY price sensitive. There might be some premium for extra performance but they are far smaller then most people imagine.
> I don't think it's going to be that easy for other companies to simply catch up without a lot of R&D.
What I am telling you that there is MASSIVE amounts of R&D going into silicon. Like 10x more then Lithium anodes.
Both on individual company level and huge amounts of startups as well.
> Existing battery factories won't magically turn into factories for entirely different batteries.
Actually, yes they will depending on your definition of 'new'. There are 30+ year old battery factories still operating with newer chemistry.
Most silicon startups and processes are design according to specification to be valid feed stock for typical Li-Ion production.
It is totally viable for existing factories to switch to very, very different anodes and cathodes.
Actually, yes they will depending on your definition of 'new'. There are 30+ year old battery factories still operating with newer chemistry.
This is not universally true. Tesla for example is doing its own thing for example with dry electrodes, and are far less compatible.
> Most electrical cars produced by the end of this decade will be built in factories that don't exist yet.
Most EV will produced in factories that are currently in advanced planning, literally 99% of those will not be lithium metal anode factories.
> That's the opportunity for Quantumscape.
I'm not denying that they have an opportunity. But company with huge tech, market risk and price risk is a very risky investment. They have not made profit and wont make it for many more years.
Their valuation now is of course far more reasonable then when I originally made this argument, but its still rather high for me. But I would have to spend more time on analyzing to say what I think they are worth.
I like to ask, how many years of highly successful execution is required to for the company be a solid self standing company. For QS this is likely about 8-10 years.
> If they have something competitive by 2024
They wont. By then they are in sample production of a tiny factory. You massively underestimate how much time and effort it will require to build a real modern mass production facility that can directly compete to go into modern car production line.
If they are lucky by 2025 one of their partners will make some sample luxury cars with their batteries in them. Maybe in 2026-2027 some new luxury car will actually go into series production with these.