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a) Meta had similar swings of over 3x between a 2021 high and a 2022 low. We can only guess what Twitter would be worth today if the stock was floated, but it isn’t. Substituting market valuations with our personal beliefs isn’t interesting.

b) Every social media company has a well populated graveyard of failed experiments behind them.

c) Opinion.

d) Business as usual for every social media company since the dawn of time.

e) Opinion. And advertiser behaviour suggests otherwise.

f) History is littered with new entrants which fail to unseat the incumbent. It does happen, but it’s statistically rare.



a - f) Opinion.


Precisely. It’s all opinion.


Except for data points like Twitter Blue subscribers, number of active lawsuits, failed video startups etc.

As well as comments from Musk himself about the decline in the value of Twitter and from advertisers themselves about the challenges around brand safety.




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