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> The gap with GPT-4 is not that big...

Oh it is though. I've tried several OS models and nothing comes even close to GPT-4. Turns out ClosedAI has a moat after all.



AI development is taking place at breathtaking velocity and GPT-4 isn't the end of the road. OpenAI's moat relies on them improving at a faster pace than competitors. I wouldn't take it for granted that OpenAI's lead will remain the same in a year as it is today. Very possibly they could expand their lead. Also possibly, their lead could vanish.


Individual developers’ hardware and data has limit, I don’t see the OS models breaking into 100B models anytime soon


GPT-4 came roughly 12 months after GPT-3.5, and I'd say the competition is roughly approaching 3.5 now, so I'm hoping they will reach GPT-4 level early 2024. Not that far off!

Wish there was a bookmark/remind-me function so I could come back in 8 months' time and see how close I was.




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