Point #2 is arguing with your conclusion, so let's set that aside.
You're on the right track but you have to look wider. And now that prices are out, we can play with better guesstimates.
Anyone purchasing an iPhone will have a USB wallbrick and a USB-Lightning cable in the box. They can charge their phone from that setup, any computer, and any USB wallbrick Apple or any third-party vendor ever sold. So the "upsell" here, if there is one:
- Purchasing extra USB-Lightning cables for convenience ("one for the work PC too...") $19
- Purchasing Lightning-30 adapters for old 30-pin dock speakers and car adapters still in use $29
I'm guessing attachments will be about 10% for the extra cable and 10% for the dock over the life of the product. But let's say 50% for all iphone 5 purchasers.
With an estimated global sale of 80M per year, assuming 50% attachment for both, assuming 100% profit margin, that's $50 over 80M units / 2 = 2B dollars in an extremely optimistic interpretation.
Apple booked 109B in revenue in 2011, of which 2B would count for 1.83%. They will do a great, great deal more than that by the time 2012 is over.
$2B in potentially increased accessory profit is a fart in the wind for this company. And keep in mind they're probably losing a substantial number of 30-pin licensees in this changeover, who already pay real money to get -their- access to Apple's vast platform of 90% margin accessories. We're just trading one proprietary connector for another.
Also, considering the obvious and real customer ire breaking compatibility causes, considering the obvious and real costs of redesigning and changing a part they've been ordering by the hundred millions for a decade, and considering the possibility that they might not even re-license any of their 30-pin accessory profiles, it can't simply be for money's sake.
The benefit for them moving to a dramatically smaller I/O port with a dramatically smaller set of supporting onboard electronics is in meeting extraordinary engineering pressure for reduced volume and mass in an era where many of their mobile products are nearly the same size as a 30-pin dock connector.
It's a new era. Consumer computers are now measured in milligrams and micrometers, and 2002's best effort doesn't cut it anymore.
You're on the right track but you have to look wider. And now that prices are out, we can play with better guesstimates.
Anyone purchasing an iPhone will have a USB wallbrick and a USB-Lightning cable in the box. They can charge their phone from that setup, any computer, and any USB wallbrick Apple or any third-party vendor ever sold. So the "upsell" here, if there is one:
- Purchasing extra USB-Lightning cables for convenience ("one for the work PC too...") $19 - Purchasing Lightning-30 adapters for old 30-pin dock speakers and car adapters still in use $29
I'm guessing attachments will be about 10% for the extra cable and 10% for the dock over the life of the product. But let's say 50% for all iphone 5 purchasers.
With an estimated global sale of 80M per year, assuming 50% attachment for both, assuming 100% profit margin, that's $50 over 80M units / 2 = 2B dollars in an extremely optimistic interpretation.
Apple booked 109B in revenue in 2011, of which 2B would count for 1.83%. They will do a great, great deal more than that by the time 2012 is over.
$2B in potentially increased accessory profit is a fart in the wind for this company. And keep in mind they're probably losing a substantial number of 30-pin licensees in this changeover, who already pay real money to get -their- access to Apple's vast platform of 90% margin accessories. We're just trading one proprietary connector for another.
Also, considering the obvious and real customer ire breaking compatibility causes, considering the obvious and real costs of redesigning and changing a part they've been ordering by the hundred millions for a decade, and considering the possibility that they might not even re-license any of their 30-pin accessory profiles, it can't simply be for money's sake.
The benefit for them moving to a dramatically smaller I/O port with a dramatically smaller set of supporting onboard electronics is in meeting extraordinary engineering pressure for reduced volume and mass in an era where many of their mobile products are nearly the same size as a 30-pin dock connector.
It's a new era. Consumer computers are now measured in milligrams and micrometers, and 2002's best effort doesn't cut it anymore.