ZenPayroll was far from an obvious winner when we funded it. This job is so much easier with hindsight. If you can actually pick the winners better than we can, there's a giant fortune awaiting you :)
I'm not saying that ZP was an obvious winner when you funded it, because you didn't even fund it!* And that's kind of the point.
The companies that get into YC are often speculative in their ideas. Maybe it is devaluing the idea over the execution. Maybe it is the belief that getting in early to a growing trend is more valuable than reinventing an existing idea.
Regardless, the result is great teams of founders who think the key to success is a crazy idea. Sometimes crazy ideas work (AirBnB was kinda nuts at the time) but there seems to be a heavy weight in companies funded towards those types of investments versus the ZenPayrolls. Which tends to attract the same.
* They were Switchboard Labs at the time, doing something totally different.
Actually, I did fund it. I personally invested shortly after the ZP pivot :) (and it still wasn't clear they would be successful)
Nevertheless, the fact that yc invested pre-pivot only reinforces my point, as ZP wouldn't even exist had YC not taken a chance on the team and then helped them find a more promising idea.
Sorry I was unclear, I had meant YC didn't fund that idea because it didn't exist until they were already accepted.
I see your point, that the team is the most important part and YC invested in that. My feeling is that YC can be more effective at funding those types of ideas and teams. That the hit rate can be higher by focusing on a different class of idea. Perhaps that means more pivots or different ideas accepted at the start. I'll try to flesh this out more.
P.S.
Unrelated, but thank you for sharing your thoughts. I appreciate it
